After a very challenging 2024, the Italian machine tool industry closed 2025 with limited momentum, as production recorded only modest growth amid a difficult international environment. Italian manufacturers of machine tools, robots and automation systems saw their performance constrained mainly by a sharp contraction in exports, which was not fully offset by the still-uncertain recovery of the domestic market.
These trends emerge from the preliminary data for 2025 and the forecasts for 2026 prepared by the Studies Department & Business Culture Centre of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE. While the outlook for next year is more encouraging, expectations remain cautious due to persistent geopolitical tensions and economic instability.
In 2025, total production reached €6.42 billion, representing a 1.5% increase compared with the previous year. This modest rise was achieved despite a significant downturn in foreign sales, which fell to €3.71 billion, down 13.2% from 2024.
Almost all major international markets for Italian machine tools reported negative trends, highlighting the impact of a complex global scenario marked by trade tensions, conflicts and slowing industrial activity in key economies. According to UCIMU’s analysis of ISTAT data for the January–August 2025 period, the United States remained the main destination market, with exports amounting to €423 million, although this figure was 8.1% lower than in the same period of the previous year.
Germany followed with €196 million, recording a steep decline of 29.7%, while France ranked third at €145 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.5%. India and Poland both recorded exports of €135 million; while sales to India declined by 4.2%, Poland stood out with growth of 13.3%, confirming its increasing importance for Italian manufacturers.
On the domestic front, the picture was more positive, albeit still insufficient to fully compensate for the weakness of exports. Italian consumption of machine tools, robots and automation systems rose by 20.5% to €4.47 billion, supporting deliveries by domestic manufacturers, which increased by 32% to €2.71 billion.
Despite these gains, both consumption and domestic deliveries remain well below the levels achieved in previous years, underlining the incomplete nature of the recovery. The export-to-production ratio declined further, falling to 57.8%, confirming a shift toward greater reliance on the domestic market.
Looking ahead to 2026, UCIMU forecasts point to moderate growth across the main indicators. Production is expected to rise to €6.59 billion, up 2.6% compared with 2025. Exports are forecast to return to positive territory, albeit marginally, reaching €3.74 billion, while deliveries by Italian manufacturers on the domestic market are expected to grow to €2.86 billion, supported by stronger internal demand. Italian consumption is projected to increase by 5.9% to €4.73 billion, while imports are expected to rise by 6.8% to €1.88 billion. In this scenario, the export-to-production ratio is forecast to decline slightly further to 56.7%.
Commenting on the figures, UCIMU President Riccardo Rosa noted that 2025 marked a turning point after the sharp downturn of the previous year, with production returning to growth, albeit at a very modest pace. He highlighted that the extent to which exports weighed on overall performance was greater than expected, largely due to geopolitical instability, ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, and the tariff policies introduced by the United States, all of which disrupted international trade flows.
Mr Rosa also underlined that domestic market performance exceeded expectations, although it allowed companies to recover only a small portion of the losses accumulated over the previous two years. This, he explained, was partly due to the critical issues affecting Transition 5.0, which became operational with significant delays, underwent repeated revisions and was fully usable only in its final months, before being closed earlier than originally planned.
Despite these challenges, Mr Rosa stressed that the results achieved demonstrate the effectiveness of the 5.0 measure, alongside Industry 4.0, in supporting investment in advanced manufacturing technologies. He expressed hope that the incentives currently under discussion within the framework of the 2026 Budget Law will be simple, clear and quick to implement, with minimal bureaucracy and immediate availability, as certainty and speed are essential for companies planning investments.
